Xi’s missing smile: What AI reveals about his meetings with Trump and Putin

US President Donald Trump paid a state visit to the People’s Republic of China on 13-15 May. This was Trump’s first visit to China in nine years, and the second time he has been received by Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. These meetings between the leaders of the world’s two most powerful nations attracted widespread attention.

Using China Central Television (CCTV) news broadcasts as a primary source and employing artificial intelligence (AI) and a Facial Action Coding System (FACS), I analysed Xi’s facial expressions during his televised meetings with Trump in November 2017 and on 14 May, as these public displays of emotion may give us an insight into Xi’s thoughts on both occasions and enable us to predict the future development of US-China competition.

A very telling body language

During both of the Xi-Trump meetings, Xi’s emotional response was largely neutral (44.4% in 2017 and 65.1% in 2026). CCTV is the official mouthpiece of the Chinese government, so its broadcasts of meetings between heads of state tend to be solemn and formal, hence the high neutrality rate. However, we can still get a glimpse of Xi’s thoughts from changes in the proportions of other emotions on both occasions.

During his 2026 meeting with Trump, Xi expressed feelings of happiness for only 4.8% of the broadcast, significantly lower than the 27.9% in 2017. This may stem from Xi’s dissatisfaction with Trump’s response to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments at the end of 2025 which seemed to suggest that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be equivalent to an invasion of Japan — a position that could be seen as evidence of an informal alliance between Japan and Taiwan.

Furthermore, China is also unhappy with the possibility that the US might authorise up to US$14 billion worth of arms sales to Taiwan. During his 2026 meeting with Trump, Xi emphasised that the Taiwan issue is the most important factor in US-China relations and that Taiwan independence is incompatible with peace across the Taiwan Strait.

Xi’s second point of contention with the US is likely US-China trade, and trade was a key topic during his 2026 meeting with Trump. China has agreed to purchase 200 aircraft from Boeing and has plans to buy tens of billions of dollars’ worth of US agricultural products and oil annually over the next three years. However, China has expressed strong dissatisfaction at not being able to obtain advanced US AI chips.

Although the US agreed to allow some Chinese companies to purchase Nvidia H200 AI chips, China rejected the offer, primarily because the US is unwilling to sell its most advanced chips and semiconductor equipment. China believes the US intends to “strangle” China’s technological development by offering “charitable” high-tech sales. The two leaders failed to reach a consensus on this issue during their 2026 summit.

Happier days in 2017?

However, as I mentioned above, Xi appeared visibly happier during the 2017 meeting than in the 2026 one. Some events immediately prior to Trump’s visit may offer clues to why Xi appeared so happy at that time.

During the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s 19th National Congress held in October 2017, shortly before Trump’s visit, “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era” was incorporated into the party’s constitution, and no potential successor to Xi was appointed to the Politburo Standing Committee. 

This was a sign that Xi’s ambition to remain in power for life had gained the approval of senior officials and that he had consolidated his position at the very top of the hierarchy. When Trump and his first lady arrived in Beijing shortly after the congress, they were treated to top-notch hospitality, including a tea party with Xi and his wife in the Forbidden City, and this created an atmosphere of equality between the two leaders.

Not much chummier with friends like Russia

It would be useful to compare Xi’s facial expressions during his meeting with Trump on 14 May with his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Great Hall of the People on 20 May. Putin has visited China multiple times during his presidency. During the CCTV broadcast of his most recent visit, Xi’s facial expressions were 11% happy and 11.5% surprised. So it appears that Xi was nowhere near as happy as he had been during his 2017 meeting with Trump, but significantly happier than he was with Trump in 2026. 

Russia’s massive expenditure on invading Ukraine has become a strategic burden for Beijing, and this might be the reason behind the somewhat cool reception Xi accorded Putin. Among other reasons, the 11.5% surprise may be related to Putin’s warm words when meeting Xi.

It is reported that Putin quoted the Chinese idiom “A day apart feels like three autumns” (一日不见，如隔三秋) to express the close relationship between China and Russia, which surprised the Chinese leader, who is more accustomed to a rigorous diplomatic style.

The differences in Xi’s facial expressions during the Trump and Putin visits may indicate that Beijing is seeking a new partnership and diplomatic balance between Washington and Moscow. Xi appeared to avoid an overly enthusiastic response during the Russian president’s most recent visit, as it could disrupt China’s foreign policy strategy in relation to the US.

Pragmatic approach to US-China-Russia relations

From a realist perspective, the diplomatic game between the US and China is likely to continue. Based on Xi’s expressions during his televised meeting with Trump in 2026, I would say that Xi is not entirely satisfied with US diplomatic actions, particularly its plans to sell weaponry to Taiwan, which is tantamount to tacit approval of Taiwan’s improved informal partnership with Japan.

Although Xi received Trump with a grand military reception at the Great Hall of the People, this did not seem to have dispelled the US president’s wariness towards China. Trump remained uncompromising on the subject of high-tech exports. In other words, the concrete impact of the 2026 Xi-Trump summit on China’s development may be less than that of Trump’s first visit in 2017.

Russia is also a significant variable in the strategic competition between the US and China. In recent years, Sino-Russian cooperation has largely been built on a shared interest in countering the US, but that does not mean the two countries are without contradictions.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative seems to have given Beijing more political and economic influence in Central Asia than Russia, and this may have made Moscow more vigilant. Furthermore, there are potential conflicts of interest between the two countries regarding the Arctic region.

It is clear from my analysis that Xi was not particularly enthusiastic during his most recent meeting with Putin, indicating that he is taking a pragmatic and nuanced approach to relations with both Russia and the US, and assessing how he can gain the maximum strategic benefits from the triangular relationship.

Related: Trump-Xi summit: Why China scored the bigger strategic win | How China sustains the illusion of equality with Russia