Racing against time: Russia’s eastward push before Trump’s return
Russia is looking eastward in a bid to consolidate its geopolitical and economic position before Trump takes office. Putin, for instance, has recently sought to strengthen cooperation and reinforce security partnerships with Kazakhstan. Academic Yerkin Nazarbay tells us more about Russia’s ambitions amidst the context of the Trump presidency.
On 27 November 2024, 21 days after US President-elect Donald Trump won the election and promised to usher in the “golden age of America”, Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, for a high-profile two-day state visit.
Trump’s “golden age of America” could help Russia rebuild its light industry and develop a new strategy for domestic demand.
Russia’s chance
The visit focused on discussing the establishment of a new Eurasian defence and security architecture and deepening the comprehensive strategic cooperation between Russia and Kazakhstan. This includes improving a more equal and unified Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) joint emergency defence system and creating a more geopolitically competitive regional integration mechanism for the Eurasian Economic Union under the new international context.
For Moscow, Trump’s “golden age of America” could help Russia rebuild its light industry and develop a new strategy for domestic demand. It could also strengthen the unified Eurasian market and the regional political-economic order.
This is because the reshaping of the global land-sea power balance, along with the reemergence of East-West ideological confrontation, will make it difficult for labour-intensive industries to remain highly concentrated in any specific geographic area or political system.
Manufacturing nation in the making?
The restructuring and diversification of international trade and industrial supply chains, along with the reorganisation of global manufacturing patterns, have prompted capital to adapt and seek new sources of raw materials and labour that are safe, stable, accessible and profitable. This refers to nations or regions with sustainable development potential, which are resource-rich, labour-abundant, politically stable and economically open, with low transportation costs.
However, Russia as a whole, whether in its European or Far Eastern regions, is currently at war and deeply affected by sanctions from developed economies. Since 2022, Russia’s overall national defence and military-industrial system has been shifting eastward.
Only by strengthening the geopolitical economic links between western Siberia and Kazakhstan’s traditional heavy industrial areas in northern Central Asia — as well as Uzbekistan’s emerging light industrial zones in the south — can Russia consolidate its global great-power status as a manufacturing nation.
Despite entering a new phase of economic development during over two years of adversity, the “special wartime economic system” underpinning this strategy has reached its limits. Ensuring the continued functioning of the inland economic circulation system centred on western Siberia has become an urgent priority.
Against this backdrop, Moscow’s “Eurasian Silver Age”, which emerged during the dissolution of the Soviet Union, is facing its most severe historical challenge in the past 30 years.
Only by strengthening the geopolitical economic links between western Siberia and Kazakhstan’s traditional heavy industrial areas in northern Central Asia — as well as Uzbekistan’s emerging light industrial zones in the south — can Russia consolidate its global great-power status as a manufacturing nation.
Not a threat to Kazakhstan
“Keeping promises” will be the foundational principle of Trump’s second-term foreign policy. This focus will curb unilateral actions and attempts to forcibly alter the status quo.
The Crimean crisis in 2014, the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, and the annexation of Ukrainian territories highlight the Kremlin’s violations of both external and internal commitments.
Russia breached the Budapest Memorandum (1994), which guaranteed the territorial integrity and political independence of denuclearised countries, and ignored the Almaty Declaration (1991) principles of mutual sovereignty recognition, respect for sovereign equality, non-interference, inviolability of territorial integrity and peaceful dispute resolution.
Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev emphasised that there are no disputed issues between Kazakhstan and Russia, and that the Russian language is an important factor uniting the peoples of both nations.
Accompanying the Crimean crisis were two recurring themes: the “Russian threat,” which was once again evident, and the “ethnic Russian threat”, which remains hard to dismiss.
The Kremlin has consistently used the “protection of the legitimate rights of ethnic Russians” as a justification for launching “special military operations”. In this narrative, “ethnic Russians” can refer to actual ethnic Russian descendants or Russian-speaking groups, encompassing all foreign ethnicities or groups deemed “pro-Russian” by the Kremlin.
This is why during the joint press conference with Putin on 28 November 2024, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev emphasised that there are no disputed issues between Kazakhstan and Russia, and that the Russian language is an important factor uniting the peoples of both nations.
In contrast, Putin first emphasised in his article titled “Russia – Kazakhstan: a Forward-Looking Alliance Demanded by Life” that Russia and Kazakhstan are at the forefront of establishing a fair and multipolar world order. Furthermore, during the talks between the two heads of state, Putin affirmed Kazakhstan as a loyal friend and close ally of Russia.
A different Russian agenda in the Far East
It is easy to see that the primary message Putin sought to convey to the world through this visit is that the flames of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will not spread eastward to the adjoining Central Asian regions, and Moscow has no intention of allowing military confrontations to spill over.
The Kremlin’s primary focus is on preserving the geopolitical value and strategic legacy of Russia’s Eurasian Silver Age. Key priorities include avoiding prolonged indirect confrontation with the US and ensuring Russia does not become the frontline of a Far Eastern geopolitical struggle.
Only by fully revitalising the vast expanse of Russia’s Asian territories with Siberia as its backbone, can Russia regain its strength.
In the face of the forthcoming golden age of America, Russia recognises the urgent need to strengthen its sustainable development capacity and global geopolitical influence. Without swift action, the Eurasian Silver Age, which has persisted for 30 years, will not withstand the multidimensional shocks of the land-sea power competition.
Only by fully revitalising the vast expanse of Russia’s Asian territories with Siberia as its backbone, can Russia regain its strength. Among these efforts, the most critical task is to establish a permanent strategic rear and a new industrial base centred on western Siberia.
A three-step strategy
To achieve this, Putin formulated a “three-step South-North development strategy” during his visit to Kazakhstan, a plan that aligns with the continued deepening of the Eurasian Silver Age.
The first step is to strengthen collective security mechanisms and deepen internal integration by building a north-south central mountain defensive chain, which includes the Siberia-Seven Rivers Region-Pamir Plateau defence system.
The second step focuses on enhancing border control and combat readiness of CSTO member states, consolidating the four-layer internal defence network along the Tajikistan-Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan, Kazakhstan-Kyrgyzstan, and Russia-Kazakhstan borders.
Moscow’s most effective safeguard against being completely overwhelmed by Trump’s future golden age of America lies in strengthening and consolidating strategic alignment and cooperative foundations with countries along the International North-South Transport Corridor.
The third step aims to promote regional economic integration across blocs by advancing transportation and energy integration among Russia, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia. This step would establish a new border economic and trade cooperation model that aligns with the current international political landscape, strategically connecting the heavy industrial bases in northern Central Asia with the southern light industrial export processing and raw material production zones.
In short, Moscow’s most effective safeguard against being completely overwhelmed by Trump’s future golden age of America lies in strengthening and consolidating strategic alignment and cooperative foundations with countries along the International North-South Transport Corridor. The inland corridor east of the Caspian Sea, which connects directly to the Persian Gulf, remains the key to enhancing Russia’s geopolitical value and maintaining its regional strategic initiative.
This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “面对美国新时代 普京加紧巩固俄哈关系”.
