Taiwan’s local elections: Can DPP disrupt KMT’s Taipei stronghold?

(Edited and refined by Bai Kelei, with the assistance of AI translation.)

With just over a month to go before Taiwan’s nine-in-one local elections, many academics following the races had expected New Taipei City to be this year’s decisive battleground. Even some Taipei residents believed incumbent mayor Chiang Wan-an could coast to re-election. Unexpectedly, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)’s nominee, Puma Shen, has generated a “Puma wave” of support to disrupt the rhythm of Chiang’s Taipei campaign and turned what seemed a virtually foregone conclusion into a closely watched contest.

In late September, the Taipei Trust in Democracy Association (TTDA) commissioned a survey by pollster Tai Li-an, who has more than 30 years of experience and long conducted polls for Formosa electronic news (《美丽岛电子报》). It found that support for Chiang and Shen differed by just 1.2 percentage points, suddenly injecting uncertainty into a race previously seen as one-sided.

A second poll on the New Taipei mayoral race released last week then showed a marked shift after months of near-even support for the top two contenders. The DPP’s Su Chiao-hui had pulled 13 percentage points ahead of the Kuomintang (KMT)’s Lee Shu-chuan. Tai attributed this to spillover from the “Puma wave”. Other polling organisations, however, have produced mixed findings, making it difficult to say how much the phenomenon is affecting the New Taipei race.

Poll controversies and silent voters

The TTDA polls have also sparked controversy, with members of the pan-Blue camp questioning its close ties with semiconductor foundry United Microelectronics Corporation founder Robert Tsao, who actively supported the 2025 mass recall campaign. They also noted that pan-Green supporters accounted for 37.5% of respondents in the September Taipei poll, substantially more than the 28.4% who supported the pan-Blue camp. Lee’s team likewise challenged the New Taipei poll, arguing that its sample did not reflect the local electorate. It said that the findings “suited Su’s wishes but defied reality and common sense”.

But the report’s projected vote shares suggest a much narrower gap than the 13-percentage-point difference in support. If voting were held now, Su would receive between 50.1% and 53.1% of the vote, against Lee’s 46% to 48.9%. Tai explained that the projections drew not only on the latest poll but also on past voting patterns, in an attempt to capture the likely leanings of voters who had not declared a preference. He believes the momentum behind the “Puma wave” may have created a “spiral of silence”, making some supporters of the pan-Blue camp and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) reluctant to disclose their preferences to pollsters. This means Lee’s underlying support could be higher than suggested.

Despite the controversy over the polls, there are signs that the “Puma wave” is spilling over into election campaigning in other cities and counties. When I attended Shen’s street-level “soapbox” event, where he addresses questions and complaints from citizens, in Ximending and the opening of his campaign headquarters on 4 October, I met people who had travelled of their own accord from New Taipei, Taoyuan and Keelung to take part.

This is perhaps unsurprising. After all, Taipei, New Taipei, Keelung and Taoyuan form a closely connected metropolitan area. Many people cross city and county boundaries daily for work or school, while some live in Taipei but are registered to vote elsewhere. What remains unclear is whether these enthusiastic attendees were already Green-camp supporters, had been drawn in by Shen, or both.

Pan-Green morale versus KMT strategy

For the KMT, the rise of the “Puma wave” has added uncertainty to its existing campaign strategy. The party had hoped to build a joint Taipei–New Taipei campaign around Chiang and Lee, with Chiang serving as its strongest electoral draw and campaigning for candidates elsewhere. One pro-Blue academic described the “Puma wave” as “turning manufactured momentum into real influence”, arguing that what began as an effort to create an impression of support was now having tangible effects. It has also disrupted the KMT’s cross-boundary campaign coordination.

Beyond the main battlegrounds of Taipei and New Taipei, the spillover could also affect electoral races elsewhere. In Changhua county, the KMT’s difficulties in bringing local factions together have stirred discontent among those seeking its nomination. The collapse of cooperation between the KMT and the TPP in Zhubei city could also have repercussions for Hsinchu county. These problems existed well before the “Puma wave” gathered momentum and though it did not cause the rifts, it could widen them.

Lessons from 2018 Han wave

The “Han wave” of 2018 may offer a useful comparison. The electoral enthusiasm generated by Han Kuo-yu in Kaohsiung spread across Taiwan that year, helping the KMT increase its tally of city and county leadership posts from six to 15. Among them was the DPP-controlled Yunlin county, where political grievances had long divided the incumbent and former Green-camp county magistrates. Han campaigned for KMT candidate Chang Li-shan before the election, and she ultimately won the seat against the odds.

At the time, the DPP-led central government was also facing a backlash over policies including public sector pension reform and the “one fixed day off and one flexible rest day” labour rules. This year, by contrast, Taiwan’s economy is benefiting from the artificial intelligence boom, with growth forecasts repeatedly revised upwards, giving the ruling DPP a favourable record to campaign on. Against this backdrop, can the “Puma wave” ride those tailwinds and spread further to deliver more gains for the DPP in the nine-in-one elections?

Faced with the “Puma wave”, Chiang has begun putting forward policy proposals, including relocating Songshan Airport and easing urban renewal regulations, to regain the initiative. Will this check the wave’s momentum and prevent the KMT’s New Taipei election campaign from becoming the first domino to fall? Some observers also noted that even if Chiang wins re-election, too narrow a margin would leave him severely weakened politically. With just over a month left in the campaign, both the Blue and Green camps are treading cautiously.

This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as ““洋流”第一张骨牌浮现？”.

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