Trump-Xi summit: What can the US and China actually agree on?

(Edited and refined by Candice Chan, with the assistance of AI translation.)

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng met in New York on the morning of 20 September for talks on key issues including trade and investment, critical minerals and artificial intelligence (AI), setting the stage for the summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on 24 September in Washington DC.

Analysts interviewed expect the latest round of talks to maintain the stability achieved in previous negotiations, while seeking headway on specific areas such as trade and investment, to lay the groundwork for possible deliverables when the two leaders meet.

According to Reuters, the meeting was held at JPMorgan Chase’s headquarters in Manhattan and began at around 10.30 am on Sunday, with talks continuing throughout the day.

Better atmosphere for breakthroughs

The discussions focused on China’s supplies of rare earths and critical minerals, energy supply disruptions stemming from the situation in Iran, the increasingly contentious issue of AI risk management, as well as trade and investment. The two sides also sought to extend their tariff truce, which is due to expire on 10 November.

The meeting marked the eighth round of China-US economic and trade talks since negotiations began in Geneva in May last year, and the first to be held in the US. The previous seven rounds were all hosted by third countries.

Bessent and He last met in Seoul, South Korea, on 13 May this year, also in preparation for a Trump-Xi summit that was subsequently held in Beijing. Those talks lasted about three hours, after which China issued a brief statement, while the US released no information.

Li Mingjiang, an associate professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, told Lianhe Zaobao (LHZB) that the latest round of talks showed clear continuity with previous negotiations. If discussions go well, they could pave the way for concrete steps such as lowering some tariffs and establishing mechanisms such as a China-US investment committee. There could also be breakthroughs in investment and market access in sectors including automobiles and pharmaceuticals.

He said, “It will not be easy to fully implement all these measures, but the current atmosphere has improved the chances of them materialising.”

Paving the way

Gu Qingyang, an associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, said the talks were primarily intended to lay the groundwork for the Trump-Xi summit. The two sides would continue to build on the broad framework established at previous meetings between their leaders, including by confirming and following through on commitments involving purchases of agricultural products and Boeing aircraft. At the same time, they would seek progress on issues such as trade and rare earths, while broadening discussions to include new areas such as regional stability.

Gu said the talks were not simply about one side demanding concessions from the other. Both sides had their own demands and could make concessions in certain areas.

Lye Liang Fook, a senior fellow at Singapore’s ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, said China’s overall game plan is to give Trump something that makes him happy without conceding too much.

Shanghai-based international relations scholar Shen Dingli said the talks would focus on six areas: Taiwan, trade and economic relations, investment, supply chains, AI and regional security, with AI being a new addition to the agenda.

AI as a new focus point

While China and the US may agree to discuss AI, both Shen and Lye said this did not mean the two sides were ready to reach an agreement. At this stage, they said, substantive measures to regulate AI were unlikely to emerge.

Gu likewise said that a comprehensive solution to AI-related issues was unlikely to emerge from a single, relatively brief round of talks, and a more realistic approach would be to first address some of the most pressing risks. “Establishing a genuinely long-term, institutionalised governance mechanism will require further rounds of discussions, as well as the participation of more countries and stakeholders.”

Li, however, assessed that AI would feature more prominently in this round than in any previous China-US economic and trade talks, and that the two sides could make headway towards some common position.

On the decision to hold the latest round of China-US economic and trade talks in the US, both Li and Gu said that after multiple rounds of negotiations and meetings between the two leaders, the two sides had grown more receptive to engagement and more comfortable dealing with each other.

Gu said, “Although tensions and risks between China and the US remain considerable, the two sides are gradually moving closer overall, and relations have eased somewhat.”

This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “习特会前中美举行新一轮经贸磋商 料总体稳定下推进贸易投资等议题”.

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