Why the US-China space race needs air traffic control

From the Apollo 11 lunar landing in 1969 to the rise of SpaceX over the past decade, the US has been the global leader in space — from exploration and national security to the space economy. But China is challenging that dominance, executing an ambitious space agenda which aims to strengthen Beijing’s space power and, among other things, develop a robust private-sector space economy and land humans on the moon in the coming years. For both nations, the new space race is seen as a defining moment that will shape the geopolitical and economic landscape for generations to come. 

The US and China: shared interests, actually

Winning this race is more than planting a flag and leaving a few footprints on the moon. It is about expanding and sustaining an innovation ecosystem and long-term presence in space — in earth orbit, on the moon, and beyond. It is about using space to meet national security goals, as well as to generate economic growth and private sector business success. It is also about science and discovery, expanding the boundaries of human knowledge. This race is also about national prestige.

Ironically, despite their rivalry, the interests of the US and China overlap in space: both countries would benefit from agreed rules of the road. Unlocking the full potential of the space economy will require international norms and rules that both sides can accept.

Over the last 26 years, China has made incredible strides in space. Only in 2003 did China first launch a human into space. Since then, China launched its first space station in 2011 and has maintained a continuous human presence in orbit on its own multi-module station since 2021. Back in 2015, China conducted less than 20 space launches and operated fewer than 150 satellites. As of mid-2026, China has conducted over 50 launches and operates over 1,300 satellites in space. Within the next few years, China plans to land astronauts on the moon and start building a permanent lunar base.

China’s growing space infrastructure, some of it operated by companies, supports not only civilian and commercial goals, but also those of the military. Beijing’s policy of military-civil fusion means that every technological advancement in space — satellites providing broadband, earth observation, navigation and other more exotic functions, like on-orbit refuelling and servicing — will be used not only for non-military purposes, but also for a battlefield advantage.

US preserves its advantage

But the US remains the dominant nation in space and maintains structural advantages that work to its long-term advantage. Those advantages include a vibrant private-sector space ecosystem that draws on over a century of American innovation, a dynamic free market that powers the space economy, and a global network of international partners who are force multipliers for both national security and space exploration. These characteristics of US space power underpin its ongoing success and will supercharge its continued growth in space, including the return of astronauts to the moon in the next few years.

The US also continues to invest in space to strengthen its national security, with record budgets planned for Pentagon space programmes. In some ways similar to the notion of military-civil fusion, albeit with a free-market flavour, the US too turns to its private-sector enterprises in space as enablers of national security. Beijing has likely looked with envy to — and wants to copy — the success of US space companies, like SpaceX, in building reusable space rockets and satellite constellations that support both defence and business purposes.

Race to set the ground rules

However, perhaps surprisingly, the success of the US and China in space are bound together by shared interests — both nations’ space efforts and their commercial space enterprises would benefit from a shared understanding of the rules of the road for space.

The idea of a shared set of rules is not unique to space. Today, air and maritime travel between countries works well, and enables economic growth and development across many nations because of agreed-upon rules and standards. But there are no similar agreed-upon international rules for space, with outer space primarily governed by a light-on-details treaty that dates back nearly 60 years. Unlocking the true potential of space, particularly economically, will require shared ground rules.

The race between the US and China in space will not end soon, as it’s just one element and a reflection of the overall geopolitical competition between the two nations. China will likely continue making strides in space, while the US and its innovative private-sector space ecosystem will continue to power technological advancement and growth in orbit and beyond. But competition can coexist with cooperation — and it makes sense to reach an understanding of the rules of the road for space.

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