How both sides can claim a win at Trump-Xi summit

(Edited and refined by Josephine Hong, with the assistance of AI translation.)

On 21 September, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that Chinese President Xi Jinping will make a state visit to the US from 23 to 25 September at the invitation of US President Donald Trump.

The visit comes as the US-China tariff truce approaches its one-year mark. Just a day earlier, senior Chinese and US officials wrapped up eight hours of economic and trade talks in New York, focusing on trade and artificial intelligence (AI). The discussions paved the way for the second Trump-Xi meeting of the year, which will take place in Washington this week.

Exchanges between presidents

Academics interviewed by Lianhe Zaobao (LHZB) expect the Washington meeting between the two leaders to extend the year-long trade truce reached in Busan last October. They also expect the meeting to reaffirm the constructive relationship of strategic stability established in Beijing in May; advance practical cooperation in areas including AI, military and law enforcement; and finalise plans for a third Trump-Xi meeting in Shenzhen in November and a fourth in Miami in December.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun announced Xi’s three-day visit to the US at a regular press conference on 21 September, describing the exchange of visits between the two leaders within the span of half a year as a historic milestone.

Guo said during the visit that Xi would have an in-depth exchange with Trump on major issues concerning China-US relations, as well as world peace and development. Beijing is also prepared to work with Washington to enrich the dimensions of the China-US constructive relationship of strategic stability, strengthen dialogue and cooperation, and properly manage differences.

Xi’s previous visit to the US was in November 2023, when he travelled to San Francisco to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit and met then US president Joe Biden.

According to the itinerary released by the White House last week, Xi and his wife, Peng Liyuan, will arrive at Joint Base Andrews outside Washington, DC, on 23 September, where Trump will greet them at the airport. When Trump arrived at Beijing Capital International Airport in May this year, he was received by Chinese Vice-President Han Zheng.

AFP quoted Trump as telling reporters aboard Air Force One on 20 September: “I’ll be discussing almost everything with him [Xi].”

Bessent-He meeting outcomes

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng held economic and trade talks that same morning at JPMorgan Chase’s headquarters in Manhattan, New York.

Bessent later described the talks as “very successful”. The US side also proposed establishing the “US-China AI Dialogue”, a security notification mechanism aimed at fostering a shared vision of common goals and threats. The mechanism will be considered at the Trump-Xi summit this week.

Meanwhile, Xinhua described the talks as “candid, in-depth and constructive” exchanges on key economic and trade issues, with the two sides also discussing AI.

Bloomberg quoted Li Chenggang, who took over as China’s international trade representative on 20 September, as saying that the talks were held in a good atmosphere and a working group would continue discussions on 21 September.

US trade representative Jamieson Greer said the two sides were preparing the groundwork for a successful meeting between the Chinese and US leaders and had operationalised a Board of Trade that can “create a kind of ballast for the relationship”. He also said a list of non-sensitive items, which can be considered separately for future trade actions, would likely include consumer and low-tech goods from China, as well as energy, agricultural and medical products from the US.

Dylan Loh, an associate professor of public policy and global affairs at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, told LHZB that the economic and trade talks between China and the US over the weekend went better than expected. He said the eight-hour duration was significant and that the two sides had found enough areas of common ground to achieve mutually beneficial outcomes.

“The fact that the talks lasted so long may mean there were many complicated issues to deal with, but it also shows that both sides had a strong political will and were willing to spend so much time pushing things forward,” Loh said. “This reflects leadership, as well as some progress.”

Loh expects the two countries could reach “very clear commitments or agreements” in AI at this week’s leaders’ summit. The two sides may also announce more details on investment and trade committees.

“This is a relatively low-hanging fruit where both Trump and Xi can claim a victory. It demonstrates to the world that concrete progress has been made since the previous summit,” he said.

Markers of successful summit

Wu Xinbo, dean of Fudan University’s Institute of International Studies and director of its Center for American Studies, said the value of goods covered by reciprocal tariff reductions could exceed US$30 billion, “or even US$50 billion”.

Beyond agricultural goods, China could also expand its US imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), Boeing aircraft and other goods. However, Wu is not expecting much from the easing of restrictions on Chinese investment in the US, “mainly because there are still internal divisions within the US”.

Wu said China’s goal for relations with the US this year is to maintain stability while making progress. He highlighted four objectives of the Washington meeting: reaffirming efforts to advance a constructive relationship of strategic stability; extending the China-US trade truce; promoting practical cooperation between the two countries while managing risks; and confirming plans for two more rounds of leader-level diplomacy by the end of the year.

“The success of the second Xi-Trump meeting will be judged by the outcomes in these areas,” Wu said.

CNBC quoted Bessent on 21 September as saying that senior Chinese and US officials would meet again in Shenzhen in about two months to discuss AI dangers and communication protocols.

Bessent also disclosed that Chinese officials were very engaged in discussion on the US economic pressure against Iran. The US is holding discussions with Chinese financial authorities, including People’s Bank of China governor Pan Gongsheng, on compliance with US sanctions targeting Iran.

Meanwhile, Fox Business reporter Edward Lawrence said in a post on X on 21 September that China and the US were also seeking an agreement on rare earths, with the hope that the agreement can be announced by the two leaders during the summit. Bloomberg, citing data released by China’s customs authorities on 20 September, reported that China exported 512 tonnes of rare earth magnets to the US in August, down 21% from July.

The China-US tariff truce is due to expire on 10 November. During an interview with Bloomberg Television on 21 September, Greer said that the two sides remained divided on the terms of a trade truce extension. He said Washington could support another three- to six-month extension, but it may not be announced this week.

Greer explained that China has created uncertainty in limiting rare earth exports and the US is monitoring them, so the US wants incremental extensions to ensure compliance.

“Just saying we have full trust and full confidence in each other at this point, I think is a little naive,” he said.

This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “习近平本周三至五访美 学者：华盛顿会晤或延长中美贸易休战”.

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