Shifting tides: Why global approval is swinging from US to China

(Edited and refined by Bai Kelei, with the assistance of AI translation.)

A major survey released this month by the Chile-based non-profit Latinobarómetro has found a reversal for the first time in Latin America in how locals assess the influence of China and the US.

The survey found that 65% of respondents viewed China’s influence in Latin America positively, a marked increase from 48% in 2020. By comparison, the proportion who viewed US influence positively fell from 60% in 2020 to 57%.

This is the first time China has overtaken the US on this measure since the survey began in 1995. Besides those from Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic, respondents in 15 of the 17 countries surveyed considered China’s influence more positive than that of the US.

This shift in perceptions is related to the hardline stance adopted by US President Donald Trump towards Latin America during his second term. Earlier this year, the US fired the opening shot of the “Donroe Doctrine” in Latin America by raiding Venezuela to capture its president, Nicolás Maduro. While 69% of survey respondents supported Maduro’s capture, only 35% believed US intervention benefited Venezuela.

Discontent grows beyond Latin America

This trend is not confined to Latin America. Several surveys conducted by think tanks in various countries this year have shown China and the US moving in opposite directions in terms of popularity.

In July, US think tank Pew Research Center released its findings from a survey of 36 countries: respondents in 25 countries including US allies such as Canada, Australia, France and Germany viewed China more favourably than the US.

It was also the first reversal in global public perceptions of China and the US since Pew began tracking views of the two countries in 2002. In the 20 countries with comparable data, favourable views of China rose from 32% in 2023 to 46%, while favourable views of the US fell from 58% to 36%, marking the first crossover between the two sets of figures.

In Southeast Asia, the annual State of Southeast Asia Survey report released in April by the ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore similarly found that if Southeast Asian respondents had to choose a side, China was again preferred to the US, widening its lead to four percentage points.

In April, a Gallup survey also found that 36% of respondents approved of China’s leadership, surpassing the US at 31%. This was the largest lead China enjoyed in nearly 20 years.

Unilateral actions alienate traditional allies

Since Trump returned to the White House in January last year, the US has repeatedly clashed with other countries over trade, security and foreign policy. It has withdrawn from major international organisations, threatened to take Greenland and regain control of the Panama Canal, and even spoken of annexing Canada. It also imposed “Liberation Day” tariffs that disrupted international trade; made a high-profile capture of Venezuela’s president; and launched a war against Iran that plunged the Middle East into conflict once again.

The Trump administration has taken its “America First” approach to extremes, systematically dismantling the rules-based international order that the US once helped to establish. Even the US’s closest circle of allies is reassessing its relationship with Washington. Canada and the UK have recalibrated their views of China because of the US, with hostility towards China also easing.

By contrast, China’s external landscape has improved considerably. Before and during the Covid-19 pandemic, China was repeatedly at odds with Western countries over Hong Kong, Xinjiang and human rights issues. The outbreak of the pandemic brought further controversy over the origins of the virus, while Beijing’s continued reluctance to condemn Moscow after the Russia-Ukraine war started further deepened mistrust between China and the West.

In the later years of Trump’s first term and during the Biden administration, China responded forcefully to the strategic containment initiated by the US. Its assertive “wolf warrior” posture resonated at home, but also damaged China’s international image. In an international media environment dominated by Western outlets, the “China threat” narrative was amplified.

However, China’s tense relations with Western countries have eased over the past year or so, while China-US ties have stabilised. Although friction over trade and other issues remain pronounced, its broader external landscape has improved. At the same time, Chinese diplomats and major state media outlets have softened their stance, improving the country’s diplomatic image.

Soft power over shared ideology

The “Chinamaxxing” trend also plays a part as people around the world are introduced to high-quality and affordable products and popular culture from China. A series of visa-free policies has also drawn more foreigners to China for a personal experience of the country. Marta Lagos, head of Latinobarómetro, attributed Latin Americans’ more positive assessment of China’s influence to cheaper imports from the country. “The gap China fills is mainly the gap in people’s wallets,” she said.

In other words, favourable views of China may not necessarily stem from more people embracing Chinese values, but growing direct exposure to Chinese products, technology, culture and the lives of ordinary Chinese people. Avoiding arguments over differences in diplomatic approaches and ideology, while building resonance through softer means, is a good start towards helping the outside world understand China and correcting biases and misunderstandings.

For China, the foundations of this rise in global favourability remain fragile and must be carefully maintained for it to take root and endure. The key to winning hearts and shaping a broadly positive image as a major power goes beyond diplomacy, economic might, high-quality and affordable technology products and hit television dramas. It lies in how China can become more inclusive and composed as it becomes more confident.

This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “中美全球民意好感度此长彼消”.

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