[Video] Rare Hubei tornadoes expose China’s rising weather risk

Tornadoes tearing through cities often look like a scene from a disaster film, but on 6 July, that nightmare became a reality in China when three tornadoes tore through Hubei province in just over two hours.

Tornadoes are not uncommon in China, with around 50 to 100 recorded each year. What made the Hubei tornadoes unusual was their location. They are tornadoes developed from outer rain bands of tropical cyclones, which are more commonly seen along China’s coastal provinces. “For this type of tornado to occur so far inland, in Hubei, may be the first case of its kind this century,” said Professor Yu Xiaoding from the China Meteorological Administration.

China’s weather forecasting challenge

Tornadoes remain one of the hardest weather events to predict anywhere in the world. They can develop suddenly, last only minutes and range from just a few metres to several hundred metres wide. Even an experienced and highly alert forecaster can usually only issue warnings 15 to 20 minutes in advance. 

Currently, meteorologists primarily rely on radar to track them. When radar detects a rapidly rotating low-level vortex, known as a mesocyclone, it signals a high risk of tornado formation. To improve future capabilities, the US's NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory developed the Warn-on-Forecast System, a high-resolution ensemble model. However, it has yet to be put into operational use in either the US or China.

Beyond technological limits, China faces two systemic challenges.

Dr Chen Gang, the deputy director and a senior research fellow at the East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore, said China has established a sophisticated disaster early warning system. However, it is not yet adaptable enough to handle emerging, highly localised weather events.

Another challenge lies in how forecasts are communicated. Meteorologists widely agree that probability-based forecasting is the most ideal approach, as weather predictions can never be entirely certain. However, the Chinese government largely rejects this method. Yu said authorities may fear that probability-based warnings would complicate disaster management, making officials reluctant to act on probabilistic forecasts instead of clear-cut "yes or no" predictions.

The myth about extreme weather in China

According to Yu, data since the 1950s suggests that tornado frequency fluctuates from year to year with no clear upward trend.

Part of the perception that extreme weather is increasing, he explained, comes from increased visibility. China once had fewer than 3,000 surface meteorological observation stations. Today, it has close to 100,000. Furthermore, the ubiquity of smartphones and the internet has accelerated how quickly disaster footage is shared and distributed.

Extreme weather is not becoming more frequent across the board. While sandstorms have declined, short-duration intense rainfall and extreme heat appear to be on the rise. Multiple factors are driving these divergent trends, and their interactions are highly complex.

Professor Ren Guoyu, a meteorological expert at the China University of Geosciences, said some studies suggest that improved air quality in recent years has reduced aerosol concentrations, allowing more solar radiation to reach the Earth’s surface. This may have contributed to an increase in certain severe weather events, although the hypothesis has yet to be conclusively proven.

Ren pointed to urbanisation as a more firmly established factor. Studies show it has increased both the frequency and intensity of localised heavy downpours and heatwaves in metropolitan areas.

When Chinese cities become vulnerable

Nearly two-thirds of China’s population now live in cities. When a disaster hits a densely populated area, the consequences can be devastating.

Take Hubei province, where two EF3 and one EF1 tornadoes struck within just over two hours. An EF3 can snap trees, topple power poles and damage buildings. In one of the most disturbing incidents, a man was pulled through the window of his 12th-floor apartment and later rushed to intensive care. A similar incident occurred in 2024, when a resident was pulled from a 20th-floor apartment in Nanchang.

Chen observed that many cities built rapidly over the past two to three decades prioritised commercial development over disaster resilience. As a result, some construction and engineering standards are no longer adequate for emerging risks, including the widespread use of floor-to-ceiling glass panels enclosing balconies.

Yu similarly noted that windows are often the most vulnerable part of a building, particularly when residents carry out improper renovations, such as removing protective railings or altering window structures.

Rethinking disaster response

Chen called for disaster preparedness to be integrated into urban planning, building standards and post-disaster response. As local and central governments scale back infrastructure spending, he argued that resources should be redirected towards strengthening climate resilience instead of simply reducing investment.

Furthermore, as China faces more localised disasters, such as floods in Guangxi and landslides in Chongqing, its response strategies must evolve to become more diversified, decentralised and targeted, rather than relying exclusively on the top-down mobilisation systems that the government has traditionally used.

The reality is that extreme weather is becoming more complex, uncertain and, in some cases, more severe. Real readiness means everything moving in step: sustainable development that does not introduce new risks, probabilistic forecasting that is honest about uncertainty and integrated disaster response management that works from the top down and the ground up.

Related: One size fits none: Why China’s top-down disaster response must evolve | Can China’s cities keep pace with climate change?