Articles by Emanuele Scimia

Why China’s land routes may fail in a Taiwan crisis

China has built overland routes to reduce its reliance on vulnerable sea lanes. But lessons from Ukraine and Iran suggest cheap drones and long-range strikes could leave those lifelines exposed in a Taiwan crisis, says Italian commentator Emanuele Scimia.

Emanuele Scimia

31 Jul 2026

How Turkey arms China’s rivals without angering Beijing

Just as it balanced its role supplying combat drones to Ukraine while deepening trade relations with Russia, Turkey is playing a similar game by advancing arms sales in the Indo-Pacific while staying out of China’s way. Italian commentator Emanuele Scimia gives his analysis.

Emanuele Scimia

29 Jun 2026

How Israel’s Somaliland gambit helps Taiwan box in China

China worries that Israel’s recognition of Somaliland as an independent state would set a precedent for Taiwan. It is also concerned about the greater transfer of security know-how and regional contacts to Taiwan via the Taiwan-Israel-Somaliland entente. Italian commentator Emanuele Scimia explains.

Emanuele Scimia

02 Mar 2026

The side war against a not-yet-ready China

Avoiding a direct clash with Beijing, US President Donald Trump is exploiting China’s unfinished rise — pressuring its energy suppliers, trade partners and allies to constrain its growth before it can defend its global interests, says Italian commentator Emanuele Scimia. 

Emanuele Scimia

04 Feb 2026

If China moves on Taiwan, Asia moves with it

US planners are preparing for a multi-theatre fight that would stretch China’s forces across land, sea and alliances — turning a Taiwan war into a regional one. Italian commentator Emanuele Scimia explains.

Emanuele Scimia

15 Jan 2026

Venezuela exposes the limits of China’s global power

China’s limited response to Venezuela amid Trump’s deployment of naval vessels to the southern Caribbean in the crackdown on drug smugglers makes clear that Beijing cannot (yet) provide an alternative to Washington’s hegemony. Italian commentator Emanuele Scimia discusses the issue.

Emanuele Scimia

29 Sep 2025

Putin (and China) dodged Trump’s sanctions bullet at the Alaska summit

China may actually have much to gain from a US-Russia detente, says Italian commentator Emanuele Scimia. Better relations between Putin and Trump, with a resulting relaunch of the US-Russia dialogue, would bring greater stability to the international system — a boon for China’s problematic economy.

Emanuele Scimia

18 Aug 2025

Did Trump upstage China in the Cambodia–Thailand truce?

The Cambodia-Thailand truce has highlighted the limits of China’s diplomacy as Beijing’s action proved less incisive than that of the US, despite Washington’s declining influence on its traditional Thai ally. Italian commentator Emanuele Scimia gives his take on the situation.

Emanuele Scimia

01 Aug 2025

Pope Leo walks a fine line between China and Trump

Considering Vatican-China relations under the new Pope Leo XIV, Italian commentator Emanuele Scimia foresees a tough road ahead, where the Holy See risks getting caught in the crossfire between China and the US.

Emanuele Scimia

20 May 2025

Trump’s tariffs: A catalyst for EU-China cooperation?

Rebalancing ties between Moscow and Kyiv can burnish China’s credentials as a neutral broker in the eyes of the European bloc and, accordingly, pave the way for a reset of the Sino-European relationship amid Trump’s tariffs, says Italian commentator Emanuele Scimia.

Emanuele Scimia

11 Apr 2025