Japan tests China’s willingness to revive people-to-people exchanges

It has been over six months since China lodged a protest over Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks that a Taiwan contingency could constitute a “survival-threatening situation”. Following her comments at a Lower House Budget Committee session on 7 November 2025, China suspended exchanges at the leadership and ministerial levels, imposed economic sanctions and other forms of pressure on Japan, and stepped up military activities around the country, while accusing Tokyo of pursuing what it calls “neo-militarism”.

While ministerial-level exchanges related to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum and visits to China by Japanese parliamentarians have since taken place, bilateral relations have yet to return to normal. China is scheduled to host the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting in November 2026, and a visit to China by Takaichi is also under consideration. However, the prevailing view is that the prospects for a Japan-China summit are extremely slim, and that even if Takaichi were to visit China, a dramatic normalisation of bilateral relations.

Non-government level activities

There have, however, been tentative signs of movement at the non-governmental level. In June 2026, the Japan Association for the Promotion of International Trade (JAPIT), which serves as a channel for trade and economic exchanges with China, had planned to send a delegation led by its president, former Speaker of the House of Representatives Yohei Kono. Kono died on 8 June, however, and the delegation’s visit was cancelled. In his place, JAPIT vice-president and House of Representatives member Gaku Hashimoto travelled to China, meeting Vice-Foreign Minister Hua Chunying on 22 June.

Commenting on the meeting on 26 June, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) said: “The Chinese side expressed condolences over the passing of Yohei Kono, the president of JAPIT, and stated its consistent position on China-Japan relations and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s erroneous remarks on Taiwan. The Chinese side expressed the hope that the Japanese business sector can help foster a right view of history in the country and improve bilateral relations between China and Japan.”

That same month, many Japanese business leaders travelled to China for the China International Supply Chain Expo (CISCE). The MFA spokesperson also said on 26 June: “We’ve learned that many Japanese companies and economic groups also registered for the event, which represents the urgent call from Japan’s business sector for improving China-Japan relations and having cooperation with China. It’s hoped that those running the Japanese government can heed the call, face up to the root cause of problems, do serious soul-searching, correct the wrongdoings, show the sincerity of improving ties with China with concrete actions and create necessary conditions for normal exchanges between the two countries.”

Official tension, people-level exchanges

These remarks prompted speculation in Japan that Beijing might be seeking to encourage people-to-people exchanges even as official relations remained strained. Some on the Japanese side began to express cautious optimism that economic ties, exchanges between local governments, and academic and cultural contacts might once again become possible.

Against this backdrop, JAPIT is planning another visit to China in September, this time led by former Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya, who succeeded the late Kono as the association’s president. Meanwhile, the Japan Business Federation (Keidanren) hopes to send a delegation to Beijing within fiscal year 2026, led by the heads of three major business organisations, including the Japan-China Economic Association and the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

Business organisations in the Kansai region, including the Kansai Economic Federation and the Osaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry, are also planning to send a delegation to China in late October, visiting Beijing and Xi’an in Shaanxi province. Hiroshi Moriyama, a former secretary-general of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, has also told the media that he hopes to arrange a visit to China as soon as possible on behalf of the cross-party Japan-China Friendship Parliamentarians’ Union, which he chairs.

A succession of plans for visits to China has thus emerged on the Japanese side. Many appear to have been encouraged by the MFA spokesperson’s remarks on 26 June or, as in Keidanren’s case, by positive signals conveyed directly by Chinese officials.

What’s next?

However, has China really given the green light across the board for people-to-people exchanges with Japan?

Since the MFA spokesperson’s remarks on 26 June, the Chinese government and other official bodies have not sent clear signals, while criticism of Japan as pursuing “neo-militarism” has continued.

The Japanese side, particularly Japanese non-governmental figures and parliamentarians, is knocking on China’s door. Whether China will respond positively to these moves and thereby allow bilateral relations to return to normal will depend on how Beijing reacts in the period ahead.

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