Sino-US relations after Xi-Trump summit: Towards a new stability?

The second Trump administration has witnessed some dramatic changes in Sino-US relations: a fierce tariff war kicked off a rocky start in the spring of 2025, then the summit meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump in Busan in October 2025 brought Sino-US relations into a period of “tactical stability”, a temporary truce that was short and fragile. After they met in Beijing on 14-15 May, bilateral relations seem to be moving toward a new and more stable stage.

A new positioning based on constructive means

The agreement between the Chinese and US leaders to build a “constructive relationship of strategic stability” constitutes an important outcome of this summit. During Trump’s first term, China-US relations were defined through the lenses of “great power competition” and “strategic competition”. Guided by this narrative, US policy toward China shifted substantially toward toughness and confrontation, leading to persistent turbulence and continued deterioration in bilateral ties. The Biden administration inherited the narrative and intensified competition with China. Friction and conflict thereby became the new normal in bilateral relations.

In the preparations for President Trump’s visit to China, the US side suggested “strategic stability” as the goal of bilateral relations, while the Chinese side added the word “constructive”. As a result, “constructive relationship of strategic stability” became the new definition and new vision for Sino-US ties. “Strategic stability” means that both sides intend to form major understandings on important issues or pursue active cooperation in key areas, while effectively managing competition and differences, thereby providing substantive underpinnings for the stability of bilateral relations. This new definition and vision promise to bring bilateral ties up to a higher level and extend the period of stability into the next three years or even longer.

During the Cold War, the US and the Soviet Union also sought to establish strategic stability, but that stability was primarily based on their respective capabilities of “mutually assured destruction”, namely their vast nuclear arsenals. By contrast, the strategic stability that China and the US have agreed to advance this time relies primarily on constructive means. 

On the one hand, it seeks to enlarge the pie of common interests through strengthened cooperation; on the other, it aims to effectively manage competition and differences. This represents a more positive approach to strategic stability. The new positioning of a “constructive relationship of strategic stability” will help dilute the narrative of competition and improve expectations for bilateral relations. If both sides continue to work together toward this goal, it will mean that the two countries are searching for a new paradigm of major-country relations in the 21st century and can move beyond the so-called “Thucydides Trap”.

US’s China policy recalibrated

The Beijing summit reflected some important shifts in the US’s China policy during the second Trump administration. 

First is more emphasis on stability than competition in the tenets of its policy. After the initial big fight with China, Washington began in the summer of 2025 to stress on the need of maintaining stability in relations with Beijing, while competition was no longer a buzzword within the Trump administration when it came to China. During his toast at the state banquet on the evening of 14 May, President Trump pointed out that the US and China are not competitors, but partners. The US initiation of “strategic stability” attests to the shifting preference in its China policy. 

Second, reciprocity rather than decoupling or de-risking in economic ties. The understandings reached in the economic and trade field this time include: continuing to improve bilateral trade conditions, reducing tariff and non-tariff barriers, and promoting the growth of bilateral trade; exploring the expansion of two-way investment, with the US allowing China to increase investment in non-sensitive sectors and China further opening sectors to US investors; and establishing two working mechanisms, namely a trade board and an investment board, to facilitate trade and investment ties respectively. These agreements suggest that Washington is no longer endeavouring to promote decoupling or de-risking in economic relations with China, but to pursue a kind of trade and investment link that will be more reciprocal and balanced.

Third, the Taiwan question seems to become more of risk management than geopolitical leverage. From the first Trump administration to the Biden administration, Washington had energetically played the Taiwan card in its contest with Beijing, which led to heightened tensions in the Taiwan Strait and constant turbulence in Sino-US relations. In his meeting with President Trump on 14-15 May, President Xi sent a strong and clear signal to the US side on the Taiwan issue. After the China trip, President Trump suggested that he would handle the Taiwan headache more carefully and cautiously for the sake of stability in Sino-US ties as well as cross-strait peace. In this sense, Washington will be inclined to reduce the risk rather than intensify the geopolitical game on the Taiwan issue.   

Fourth, adopting broad perspectives on relations with China. At the beginning of Trump’s second term, his China policy was largely issue-oriented. He focused mainly on such narrow areas as trade and fentanyl, while showing little interest in many other important issues in bilateral relations and almost no willingness to establish multi-level dialogue and communication mechanisms with China. At the Beijing summit, the US side agreed to engage with China across a wide range of fields, including diplomatic engagement, military-to-military interaction, law enforcement cooperation and people-to-people exchanges, etc. This reflects the practical needs in US relations with China, and will also help expand the positive interactions between two sides, thereby contributing to bilateral strategic stability.

China of today stronger than before

The Xi-Trump meeting in May 2026 is arguably the most productive summit between China and America in the past decade. It has provided a good start and set a positive tone for 2026, a crucial year for China-US relations, while also establishing a constructive roadmap for the next stage of bilateral relations.

Yet one may wonder that given Trump’s flip-flop in his China policy during his first term, will he revert to the old pattern of behaviour after this visit? How to assess the way forward for the Sino-US relationship?

First and foremost, China today is no longer the China of nine years ago. Compared with that time, China is now stronger in national power, more self-confident, more experienced in dealing with the US. After all, the current stabilisation and improvement of bilateral relations is not the result of goodwill or benevolence on the part of the US; rather, it has been won by China through arduous efforts and struggles. As China’s strength grows and its strategic will is further tempered, Beijing’s capacity to shape bilateral ties will only become stronger.

Trump has learnt lessons in second term

Second, it should be recognised that Trump himself has also undergone a learning curve on China and China-US relations during his second term. Drawing lessons from the intense China-US rivalry in 2025, he came to realise China’s strength and firm strategic will. He also understands that Sino-US relations are not a zero-sum game by nature, and that the US has no choice but to respect China and engage with China in the proper manner.

Third, after the successful Beijing summit, both sides should act actively in accordance with the requirements of the two leaders and implement the outcomes and understandings. At the same time, President Xi Jinping will pay a state visit to the US this autumn, and the two countries should create favourable conditions and foster a positive atmosphere for the next summit. This means that interactions between China and the US will increase significantly in the coming period, the benefits of cooperation will be released one after another, and the atmosphere of bilateral relations will further improve. 

Twists and turns ahead

Of course, the path forward for China-US relations will inevitably encounter twists and turns. America’s hegemonic thinking and domestic politics are the two principal factors shaping its China policy, and they are also the main sources of volatility in China-US relations. President Trump himself is highly satisfied with this trip to China, but American conservatives and China hawks are certainly not. They will surely continue to influence US policy toward China and obstruct the development of China-US relations. 

The results of this year’s US midterm election will also raise new challenges to bilateral ties. Nevertheless, while China is sincere in working with the US and ushering in a new stage in bilateral relations, it is also prepared to properly manage severe fluctuations on the way forward.

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