Trump-Xi summit: Sometimes buying time is a win

I usually refrain from commenting on current events, something I do not have a comparative advantage in vis-a-vis people in the media and think tank community. That said, reading some of the commentaries on the Trump-Xi summit, I am beginning to think I may have a modest absolute advantage over some of the commentators out there. Still I should stay in my lane.

Except this time.

Many commentators have criticised the pageantry, the ceremonial excesses, and the lack of substance of the Trump-Xi summit. That is one way to look at it, but I think one can argue that if the summit leads to an easing of tensions between these two superpowers, and if the pageantry were to contribute to that easing, then it is worth it. I would count the summit as a success.

Here is my way to think about this issue. Imagine it is 1963 once again, and there is a Cuban missile crisis unfolding right in front of you. Do you want to have Donald Trump sitting behind the Resolute Desk making decisions about imposing a naval blockade or launching a preemptive strike? I do not know about you, but for me, absolutely not. That scenario frightens me.

Kicks the can down the road

My point is that you do not want this president to be in a situation in which hard decisions have to be made. It would be a disaster. Yes, he has weakened America, degraded democracy and alienated Western allies and he has gone out of his way to boost autocrats in the world. But these are the consequences of decisions made by 77 million Americans to put him back in the White House in 2024. The costs are sunk and these consequences are given and foregone. The right approach from now on is — to paraphrase a quality Donald by hindsight — that you do international relations with the president you have, not the president you wish to have. (N.B: “As you know, you go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want or wish to have at a later time.” — US Former Secretary of Defence, Donald Rumsfeld)

Look at the way he has executed a war of choice. Can you imagine how he will do in a war of necessity? A war with China will be a war of necessity. It may or it may not happen, and I definitely hope it will never happen, but if it were to happen, I do not want it to come under his watch. And I will adhere to that view even if his actions objectively raised the probability of a future war. I want his successors to handle that situation.

So if the pageantry and the bonhomie between the two leaders — not to mention the impending arrival of adorable pandas! — can buy us two years of status quo, that is a huge win in my estimation. Usually kicking the can down the road sounds bad, except when you have a sub-par decision maker to handle that can.

And Happy Mid-Autumn Day, for 2026, 2027 and 2028!

This article was first published in Substack by Yasheng Huang, as “How the Trump-Xi Summit Can Be a Win”.

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