China-Philippines Relations

The Taiwan Strait needs circuit breakers, not just deterrence

Military and coast guard encounters are becoming more frequent in the Western Pacific and around Taiwan, raising the risk that a limited incident could spiral into wider conflict. Deterrence alone is not enough; the region needs safeguards to contain escalation and create off-ramps, says researcher Hao Nan.

Hao Nan

17 Aug 2026

Ten years after the South China Sea ruling: Is China’s position better or worse?

The reality of the South China Sea is increasingly being shaped by Chinese power. This is the outcome that could matter more than 2016’s arbitral ruling and the countries rallying around it, says commentator Deng Yuwen.

Deng Yuwen

16 Jul 2026

A decade on, 14 nations reaffirm a South China Sea ruling China rejects

A 14-nation statement reaffirming the 2016 South China Sea arbitration ruling has drawn a sharp rebuke from Beijing, underscoring how the decade-old award remains a focal point of strategic rivalry even as a new dispute over the Batanes Islands emerges. Lianhe Zaobao correspondent Liu Liu speaks to academics for an analysis.

Liu Liu

13 Jul 2026

Law alone won’t save the South China Sea

A decade after the 2016 arbitration, the South China Sea remains contested. In Malaysian academic Ngeow Chow Bing’s view, lasting stability will depend not only on international law, but also on sustained diplomacy, crisis management and practical cooperation.

Ngeow Chow Bing

07 Jul 2026

Beijing’s sanctions only strengthened the Philippine defence chief

After Beijing made strong remarks and sanctioned Philippine defence chief Gilberto Teodoro Jr, the moves backfired — bolstering his standing at home, validating his criticisms of China and further damaging Beijing’s image in Southeast Asia, says Philippine academic Elaine Tolentino.

Elaine C. Tolentino

18 Jun 2026

Not distracted: Southeast Asia remains firmly in China’s diplomatic orbit

China has kept Southeast Asia in its sights despite other pressing concerns: it seeks to draw Vietnam closer by highlighting their socialist credentials and has reached out to the Philippines despite their differences. Malaysia’s East Coast Railway Line will also bind Southeast Asia closer to China, says ISEAS researcher Lye Liang Fook.

Lye Liang Fook

06 May 2026

Between distrust and engagement: Manila’s China paradox

Well into the second half of Philippine president Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s presidency, academic Aaron Rabena analyses that the perceived distancing of Philippines-China relations is not so clear-cut. In fact, at the state and sub-state levels, there seems to be engagement on some fronts and caution in others.

Aaron Jed Rabena

24 Apr 2026

China holds the cards: Fertiliser, fuel and the Middle East crisis

As the war in the Middle East continues, China finds itself at an advantage in terms of fertilisers and fuels, and it is up to China to decide what to do with these trump cards. Lianhe Zaobao associate China news editor Sim Tze Wei looks at the factors at play.

Sim Tze Wei

09 Apr 2026

Can the Philippines deter China without US backing?

Chinese water cannon attacks on Filipino fishermen at Escoda Shoal mark a dangerous escalation. Sustaining deterrence in the South China Sea now depends on US support and the Philippines’ resolve, says Manila-based analyst Don McLain Gill.

Don McLain Gill

22 Dec 2025

Scarborough Shoal: Is China’s ‘nature reserve’ a military outpost in disguise?

China’s plans to establish a national nature reserve at Scarborough Shoal serves more than just the purpose of environmental protection. Lianhe Zaobao correspondent Yu Zeyuan notes that this strategy leverages environmental protection for strategic purposes, creating a crucial outpost that affects the US and the Philippines.

Yu Zeyuan

17 Sep 2025

Between law and power: The Philippines, China, and the future of Scarborough Shoal

China recently declared a national nature reserve at the Scarborough Shoal, despite the shoal being within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. Manila-based analyst Don McLain Gill notes that the declaration is a continuation of China’s “grey zone” tactics to expand its control and normalise its presence in disputed areas.

Don McLain Gill

17 Sep 2025

Scarborough Shoal incident: A test for ASEAN, China and regional stability

A recent incident between the Philippine Coast Guard and China’s maritime forces could presage a change in tactics by the latter. If this is so, tensions in the disputed area might head north.

Ian Storey, Aries A Arugay

25 Aug 2025